Monday, January 3, 2011

Whither China?

Following holiday and illness-induced hiatus, I'm back! Damaged rib and all.

What I'm starting with this week is a review of the Cancun negotiations that took place in the first week of December. Possibly it's sort of heresy, but I don't tend to follow these UN rounds very closely while they're actually happening. I find it much more useful to do a full sweep all at once after it's over; when I get it in dribs and drabs day by day, I feel like it's too easy to give uneven attention to the news from one day over another (either by paying more attention on one day or by being more impressed by the news from a particular day). Reading it all at once, I get a sense of the sweep of things.

Anyway, that's what I'm doing. It's not finished yet, but here's the question I want to answer: has China moderated its position, and if so, how? A few entries back, I suggested that China and the US were in similar positions - relatively rich in fossil fuel resources, and with partially developed but still weak green industry sectors. My impression, though, is that China is drifting more toward a middle ground, one in which its fossil fuel resources drive it less (because they can't, alone, keep up with its needs) and its growing green industry drives it more (China is pushing hard on green technology; this means it has ever-higher incentives to make sure a robust market exists globally for those products).

So - is this true, and if so, will it show in China's negotiating stance? Check back, oh, late on the 4th!

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