Why I hate polisci

In Negotiating the Law of the Sea (Sebenius 1984), Sebenius spends a section discussing the idea that some resolutions to negotiation might involve what are essentially betting schedules, with participants having different estimations of the probabilities of various outcomes. It also analyzes whether participants ought to reveal what their beliefs are. It's an extension of the idea that differences between negotiating partners can be exploited to create mutually acceptable outcomes. Sebenius' extension may well be perfectly logical in theory. It is utterly ridiculous in practice. Consider:

Proposition 3 shows that, unless an individual is "very" risk-averse, it is worthwhile to accept a logarithmic betting schedule and to announce true probabilities when faced with an arbitrary probability announcement by an opponent.

Proposition 3. Accepting a logarithmic bet schedule and announcing one's true probabilities regardless of the opponent's announced probabilities is preferable to not betting if one's absolute risk aversion function is less than unity. (155)

[Proof withheld - it was long and involved mathematical equations with symbols I didn't even recognize.]

Corollary. A risk-neutral individual should accept a logarithmic betting schedule and should announce his true probabilities regardless of what are the announced probabilities of his opponent. (157)

I mean, give me a frakking break. Can you see Obama asking Congress to approve (and his constituents to put up with) a treaty that involved anything like this?* We already got the key insight - that differing beliefs about probabilities can support mutually acceptable agreements - last chapter. This kind of refinement doesn't serve any practical purpose that I can see, but it is precisely the kind of thing that political scientists love to do.


* It's fun to imagine, though. "Now, folks, what we have here is something they're calling a 'logarithmic bet schedule.' Now, I know - I know that's not a term everyone's use to hearing in their local grocery store. But it's really pretty simple. What it means is..."