Dependency

One of the themes underlying all national thinking on energy policy is of course energy security. In this context, people in the US immediately think about dependency on the Middle East for oil. Europeans would probably think just as quickly about the risks of depending on Russia for natural gas.

But there are lots of different potential dependencies threaded through various energy technologies. For instance, investing in nuclear power reduces your dependency on fossil fuel producers, but makes you dependent on uranium producers. That might still be a win (major uranium producers include Australian and Canada, which could be preferable to Saudi Arabia and Russia) but it doesn't make you independent. Similarly, storage - that is, batteries - is likely a big feature in next generation power grids and cars. But batteries require things like lithium. Will Afghanistan - with it's recently discovery of huge lithium resources - become the Saudi Arabia of batteries? I believe solar cells also require certain somewhat localized ingredients, though I know less about that area.

So in reality, it may be less about being dependent, and more about picking which people you'd like to be dependent on.

In that context, the cynic in me can't help assuming that Russia's swift moves to divert LNG to Japan in the midst of its crisis - even at the cost of delaying shipments to other customers - is Russia's way of saying, "When you're considering your next generation of energy investments - and replacing damaged nuclear plants - remember that no matter what troubles we may have in other areas, we were a good energy partner when you needed us."