The emissions dip is over

According to the International Energy Agency, following the recession, global carbon growth is apparently now back on track - that is, back up to roughly where business as usual would have put it. The IEA apparently attributes this to growth in developing countries.

I wrote a little while back about how recessions effect growth of emissions, and I talked about some effects that might be long-term - for instance, if recession led to die-off of least-efficient (and hence least economic) manufacturing or energy generation facilities.

But the nasty flip side of this is what happens to this on the other end. If, when demand recovers, it's met by the construction or expansion of newer facilities that make use of recent efficiency technology, great. But if instead what's going on is off-shoring of developed-country manufacturing to developing countries, the closing of least-efficient operations might in fact reduce emissions in developed countries, but demand recovery might lead ultimately to growth in manufacturing in less energy-efficient facilities. (This is assuming developing countries often use older, less efficient equipment, which I believe is often true - developing countries typically have a lower energy intensity, meaning they use more energy per unit GDP.) I wonder if that's part of what's going on here (not to suggest it's the whole story; much of it is probably just regular old growth).

Bottom line: recession emissions dips might not be all sunshine and roses. Heh.