Friday, July 15, 2011

Treaty success states

Today I found myself considering a list of states that might exist when you have an apparently successful treaty (that is, a treaty that has been signed and ratified by a minimum necessary number of participants). It's probably not a comprehensive list, but here's what I have:
  1. The treaty is meaningless: it doesn't really ask states to do anything meaningful.
  2. The treaty is meaningless: it asks states to do something, but does not obligate them (and they do not fear punishment if they fail, and therefore intend to defect or to do only as much as they would have done in absence of a treaty).
  3. The treaty is epiphenomenal: it asks states to do something meaningful, but what they are asked to do is something they would have done anyway, in absence of a treaty.
  4. The treaty is coercive: it has been forced on unwilling participants by a more powerful enthusiastic signatory or group of signatories who stand to benefit from the treaty and have threatened retaliation if the less powerful participants do not sign on.
  5. The treaty creates a club good that is only accessible to signatories; therefore unenthusiastic countries have signed on even though they might have preferred not to, because they want or need access to the club good.
  6. The treaty provides a simple benefit to all states because signing is clearly better for each than not signing; either the treaty does not entail costs (some kinds of treaties don't, especially things like standards-setting) or costs are outweighed by benefits.
I think of each of these as "escape hatches" to get from "no treaty" to "successful treaty." One might say that treaty negotiations (formal and informal) consist of circling around and around, trying to find an effective escape hatch that enough people will follow you through. Obviously some of them are preferable to others, from either a practical or a moral standpoint. Most parties generally prefer not to go through (1) or (2), but will take these as face-saving options if they can't get something better.

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